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Ecological forecasts: An emerging imperative

Planning and decision-making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, and natural capital. Availability of new data sets, together with progress in computation and statistics, will increase our ability to forecast ecosystem change. An agenda that would lead toward a capacity to produce, evaluate, and communicate forecasts of critical ecosystem services requires a process that engages scientists and decision-makers. Interdisciplinary linkages are necessary because of the climate and societal controis on ecosystems, the feedbacks involving social change, and the decision-making relevance of forecasts.


Clark, James S.
Carpenter, Steven R.
Barber, Mary
Collins, Scott
Dobson, Andy
Foley, Jonathan A.
Lodge, David M.
Pascual, Mercedes
Pielke, Roger Jr.
Pizer, William
Pringle, Cathy
Reid, Walter V.
Rose, Kenneth A.
Sala, Osvaldo
Schlesinger, William H.
Wall, Diana H.
Wear, David

Miscellaneous Publication

Science 293: 657-660

Clark, James S.; Carpenter, Steven R.; Barber, Mary; Collins, Scott; Dobson, Andy; Foley, Jonathan A.; Lodge, David M.; Pascual, Mercedes; Pielke, Roger, Jr.; Pizer, William; Pringle, Cathy; Reid, Walter V.; Rose, Kenneth A.; Sala, Osvaldo; Schlesinger, William H.; Wall, Diana H.; Wear, David 2001. Ecological forecasts: An emerging imperative. Science 293: 657-660

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